Despite electric vehicles (EVs) gaining traction in many industrialized nations, their presence in Africa remains nascent. African cities are some of the fastest motorizing cities in the world, with major implications for the vehicle stock being adopted. Our study is the first comprehensive analysis of the impact of electric vehicle fleet expansion on electricity grids in African cities, leveraging data on local urban mobility patterns. We focus on Nairobi, Kenya, a dynamic and fast-growing metropolitan area that is anticipated to have 10 million residents by 2050, and a leader in the EV transition.
We find that adoption of electric vehicles across the public transportation and commercial fleet sectors generally improves grid conditions in the city. This is due to such adoption largely adding consumption during periods when the grid is otherwise significantly below peak capacity. However, widespread conversion of private vehicles – the largest vehicle class in Nairobi – to electric vehicles, can substantially exacerbate peak electric load, leading to the accelerated overload of transformers, forcing both an increase in electricity outages as well as early equipment replacement costs. Our findings also show that coordinated charging would not only shave the peak electricity demand relative to baseline, but could actually reverse the situation, improving grid efficiency.
More findings are below. Our methods are replicable for other primary and secondary cities across the continent and can help improve the planning of efficient and effective African energy and mobility transitions. Further research is currently ongoing.
